Hidden signals in polls

This poll was typical last week (ie, prior to the Clarke bomb):

   Bush  50
   Kerry 47

These numbers are slightly negative for us, right?

But what if I tell you that in 2000, the people sampled above voted like this:

   Bush  51
   Gore  41

How do you interpret the Bush-Kerry data now?

All of a sudden a slight negative signal (Bush 50, Kerry 47) turns into a positive signal, because of the sampling bias.

How often does this happen in polls?

(Here's the poll from which the above data was taken, a March 16-21 Democracy Corps poll.)

•  re

  People lie to get out of admitting they voted for the loser. Still, I think a slight pro-Republican bias might be present.

  by sane democrat on Thu Mar 25, 2004 at 02:04:55 AM PDT

•  I still hold

  That the key to this election isn't what you're going to find in the poll data of likely voters.  I think that the best scenario for a Kerry win is that a lot of NOT likely voters come to the polls to register their disgust with Bush (and that the unlikely voters that may have gone for Bush get cheesed off enough with him to stay home).  

  by glibfidget on Thu Mar 25, 2004 at 02:16:49 AM PDT

  •  Good luck

    You're going to need it.  People in the Democratic Party have been talking about turning out non-voters forever and it has never happened.  Mondale, Dukakis and Dean are all case in point (well, Dean may have turned out new voters, but they didn't vote for him).  

    If you can find it, it is the holy grail of politics.  Have fun.

    by New Left 2004 on Thu Mar 25, 2004 at 02:19:54 AM PDT

    •  i agree

      all the polling suggests the non-voters would end up voting about the same way the voters do, and the results would be about the same.

      But if we could just get OUR non-voters to the polls, and not theirs...

      How about flyers in Republican districts that say the IRS is planning surprise tax audits of anyone who votes this year?

      by markymarx on Thu Mar 25, 2004 at 02:29:37 AM PDT

  •  People who

    People who don't traditionally vote are not the disgusted ones.  Kerry will win if the people who do vote continue to either a) be disgusted or b) fall in love with Kerry.  It is still early, but I think Kerry has a good chance at achieving both.  GOTV is nice, but electoral success comes from inspiring those who pay attention.  

    by Dave the pro on Thu Mar 25, 2004 at 02:39:11 AM PDT