Unless Kerry's probability of winning can be proved to be
strictly 0, it would be irrational and illogical not to contest Ohio.
By now, I'm sure you've seen the piece on Ohio by BBC Newsnight's Greg Palast, Kerry Won (originals here and here).
Below is a detailed calculation showing that Kerry's probability of having won Ohio is indeed non-zero.
Summary:
After counting provisional and overseas absentee ballots, Bush's lead in Ohio may well be down to 3,669 votes, triggering an automatic recount. This recount will force 92,672 spoiled ballots to be counted, which (as we know from Florida 2000) will be mostly Democratic. Hence Kerry may have won Ohio by thousands of votes.
This is based on excellent figures and analysis by
Silent E over at mydd.com.
Details:
Bush currently leads in Ohio by 136,483.
There are 155,337 uncounted provisional ballots in Ohio. 93% of provisional ballots were valid in 2002 (91% in 2000).
Suppose 95% were valid, slightly higher than the 93% in 2002. (Feasible, given the Republican "challengers" who were at the polls in Ohio this year, forcing minorities to vote provisionally.) That's
147,570 valid, uncounted provisional ballots
In 2000, 90% of valid ballots went for Gore. Suppose 95% went for Kerry this time (feasible, because of the Republican "challengers" this year.) That's
140,192 more Kerry votes
7,378 more Bush votes
netting Kerry
+132,814 votes
This brings Bush's margin down to 136,483 - 132,814 =
3,669 Bush margin (provisionals counted)
Next, there are an estimated 10,000 overseas absentee ballots. Assume they are split 5,000-5,000, so we ignore them. (Note: they may favor Bush, because of the military vote; at the same time, non-military Americans abroad see how much US-hatred there is, and may be voting mostly for Kerry.) So:
3,669 Bush margin (provisional and overseas absentee ballots counted)
By Ohio state law, a recount is triggered automatically if the election is within 0.25%, here around 13,000 to 14,000. So there could be a recount.
Finally, there were 92,672 ballots cast on which no vote for president was registered. A small portion may be no-votes, but since Ohio is 70% punch card, most are likely under- or over-votes. As we learned in Florida, those are mostly Dem votes. This would tip Ohio to Kerry.
Conclusion:
There is a non-zero probability that Kerry won Ohio, hence the Presidency of the United States of America. Therefore it would be irrational and illogical for Kerry not to contest Ohio.
This is based on excellent figures and analysis by Silent E over at mydd.com. The crucial difference here is:
Because of the 2004 Republican "Challengers", the percentages of both:
(a) valid provisional ballots
(b) valid provisional ballots going for Kerry
may be significantly higher than historical.
Therefore, there is a non-zero (if low) probability that:
(i) 95% of provisional ballots are valid this year (versus 93% in 2002);
(j) 95% of valid provisional ballots went for Kerry (versus 90% for Gore in 2000).
Here (j) is consistent with Republican challengers doubling the ratio of Dems to Republicans who are turned away. Not infeasible, given how much effort the GOP went to to specifically discredit minority voters. Also consistent with the huge increase in provisionals since 2000.
I also took the liberty of assuming nothing about the overseas absentee ballots.
Final note: Electors. We do not have a direct election for president. Legally, Kerry has not conceded. If Ohio flips, before the Electors meet to cast their votes, it would be untenable for the 20 Ohio electors to cast their 20 Electoral Votes for Bush.